The ink is barely dry on the election 2016 ballots. Our new four year term president isn’t even due to be sworn in for over a month and some are already fixating on the next presidential election. I can understand the losing party fixating on the distant future but what’s up with republicans? Can we just chill a bit? I know many aren’t satisfied with our president elect. He wasn’t the first choice of many. I’m one of those who believe we had better choices but the choice has been made. We still have a job to do before 2020. Lets start by insuring that our four year first term lives up to the promises made by the candidate. Instead of worrying about who we can replace him with how about insuring that the climate in four years facilitates a second term republican or at least a republican in 2020. That said now lets have some fun with 2020 predictions because that’s all it would be. Speculation for fun with maybe a little dose of reality for some folks.
I see the biggest driver of the 2020 “conversation” as those who ascribe as #NeverTrump. More narrowly hard core Ted Cruz supporters already pushing for Cruz in 2020. These are folks who think the deceitful primary campaign robbed Cruz of an election he should have rightly won. That may be so but the fact is he is not president elect. Now before you think me bashing Cruz and his supporters I was and still am one. He would have been a great president. He is and can be a great senator, majority leader, supreme court justice, or whatever else he decides to pursue. Now with that out of the way, to those hoping for Cruz in 2020 it just ain’t gonna happen. Baring catastrophic events no republican is going to challenge Trump in 2020.
Donald Trump will be a one term president
Yes you read that right but only because Trump will not seek a second term. He has always said he would run only if needed. Many factors such as his age and accustomed lifestyle will drive his decision to return to private life outside the cloistered life inside the Whitehouse. He will see the heavy lifting that was required as done and leave history to judge. The four years will have taken a great deal out of him. It will be a high energy pace. He will have achieved the ultimate height of his life as POTUS and be ready to retire.
“It’s all about the brand”
Already Mike Pence is emerging as one of the most high profile vice presidents in recent history. As head of the transition team he may be in effect influencing a large portion of his own future cabinet. The only other high profile VP was Dick Chenney but that was all negative coverage by the left. Pence is already setting up to be the mild mannered level headed part of the administration. You need not look any farther than the recent theater incident to prove that out. Don’t be surprised to see him take a public stand contrary to some of the harder Trump decisions that are going to come up. He has already expressed differences during the campaign. His higher profile will also become more evident as president of the senate due to the thin margin republicans hold. His vote may be required in more than one tie situation. As you watch Mike Pence going forward you can watch him groom to be the Trump heir apparent. No republican will mount a serious primary challenge against him. In four years whatever Trump hopes to accomplish will be done. His political capital will have been exhausted, but all that will be left is the mopping up and preservation.
A run by Mike Pence in 2020 stands a greater chance of success than if he ran in 2024. It seems two terms is all the American people can stand of any one party in the administration. A single term president could end the flipping effect of an eight year administration from one party to the other as well as excite the electorate with the prospect of someone new even if they have been there all along.
Mike Pence will be president elect of the United States in 2020
There’s my prediction for what it’s worth. Four years is a long time. I hope we can all be here a happier more prosperous nation whether I’m right or wrong. Given US politics the odds are very against me.
A final thought for all those who are opposed to Mr. Trump. You have good reason to be skeptical. I leave you with this. I recall an actor from California a few decades ago. Many thought he was a joke. He changed the world.